This is a very good analysis, however I think a few more issues should be also considered. The lifetime assumption of 10 years is good for new cars, but for older cars, depending on the age when bought the lithium ion batteries may be need to be replaced within that time, incurring the batteries manufacture hit once again. The other issue is that cost is not considered and the analysis assumes a single car. Right now a small percentage of cars is electric, but if even half of all new cars were electric then until the battery/electric motor mineral supply chain ramps up the cost of electric vehicles will go up significantly. If the goal is to reduce emissions from the current level, using batteries in hybrid vehicles ( which use a much smaller number of batteries than a full BEV) would reduce emission even more since many more of them could be produced for the same amount of money. For example replacing 50% of all existing cars with hybrids that get double the mileage of current cars would reduce the emissions by 25% the same as replacing only 25% of existing cars with fully electric ones. The problems of upgrading grids and adding charging stations is also a hidden cost, since, like it or not, the petroleum infrastructure is already fully built out.
This was a FANTASTIC ANALYSIS. There are outliers however. What the last 15+ years of production have taught is that Toyota Hybrids as a fleet have MUCH LONGER useful lives than nearly all other vehicles except perhaps SMALL HEAVY POLUTING DIESELS. Furthermore, the technology of the electric motors has even allowed the use of NIckel Metal Hydride batteries ratherr than the less exotic expensive and nearly impossible to recycle sealed Li-ion battery units ala Tesla. Finally, a very strange factor as to useful life has emerged amongst the electric vehicle leader Tesla. Tesla has been cutting edge in adoption of certain manufacturing technology, more closely associated with aircraft manufacture in many cases including heavy use of adhesives and very large tonnage presses making single parts that if damaged total the complete vehicle! All of these things are great for the manufacture and profit of the vehicle but distorts claims regarding useful life. The recent emergence of data that shows INSURERS TOTALING TESLA Y models at mileage as low as 10K raises a great concern about the true USEFUL LIFE of these vehicles. By comparison everyone knows someone who drove a Toyota for sometimes 20+ years and they just keep rolling. All of this could be part of an edge analysis since a Toyota hybrid provide 10 wonderful replacements for current basic ICE for the equivalent battery cell requirements of a single Tesla. The future is certainly BEV but WELL EXECUTED HYBRIDS likely contribute more to the reduction in greenhouse gases because of the EXTREME SIZE OF BATTERIES still included in full BEV.
A fair comparison context -- A Toyota Prius has an 8.8kW battery while the most modest Tesla Model 3 requires 50-82kW so the fairest comparison is what is the impact of 5-9 Priuses replacing ICE versus only one ICE being removed from service by a single Tesla. Food for thought. A case can be made the impact of 8 less ICEs by vehicles that operate in the same basic region of efficiency as the very best BEV might be an even better solution!
Your writing is FABULOUS and so happy to have become a new subscriber!
As usual, a very good analysis and cogent argument. Another "fun fact" is that less than 20% of the energy in motor gasoline makes it to the wheels, which explains why the engines are so hot. With electric vehicles, 90% of the energy makes it to the wheels.
Great article Hannah. Current battery design and degradation suggests that EV’s will need to have their batteries replaced over the time span reviewed. As Buzen says above, it would be interesting to see that data included too.
On a broader note, while there is no dispute over CO2 emissions at point of use, why do we only look at CO2? There are many other harmful substances, such as brake dust - which is both carcinogenic and can be a major factor in causes of asthma. Both EV and ICE use brake systems that emit toxic particles at point of use. While zero/low CO2 massively helps towards cleaner air, until we start tackling the other elements Im not sure we are being totally honest with ourselves.
Once again, Hannah, a brilliant, well researched piece. I love the graphics that you generate and the sites you link to. Kudos. You are among our most important writers.
I would like to see consideration of the emissions and waste generated by toxic solar panels and windmills. The cleanest, safest and most efficient source of zero carbon energy is 4th and 5th generation fission nuclear power such as molten salt reactors.
This is great. It would be interesting if you could do a follow up including plug in hybrids, while adding another comparison point- energy use to produce 1 EV vs x amount of hybrids
What seems to be overlooked is hundreds of pre-adolescents that are working long hours (for little pay) mining a necessary mineral for an EV battery. It is no less than slavery. They do this mining by bare hand. No tools. I will never buy an EV.
This is an excellent analysis, but it does not take into account the problem with producing enough lithium to electrify all cars. Obviously more lithium will be found eventually but it takes at least 10 years to develop a mine and the projection based on current plans are a substantial shortage. This is why it makes sense to also make lots of hybrid and plug in hybrid cars. Not only do they need smaller batteries. They use them much more efficiently such that you get a far bigger decrease in emissions for the same amount of battery. They also have the advantage of not requiring a dense charging infrastructure, which will take decades to develop, especially in low and middle income countries.
Offering a break from the carbon chat and sliding over to the other side of the guardrail so to speak (cost savings).
I have a 2013 Leaf with 90K miles on it. I bought it not for the eco angle or tax credit…nothing like that. I just wanted, in some small way, to have agency over my petrol dollars. More specifically, I wanted my money to stay in the US. With that said, here is the Leaf aka “Dumpy” experience after nearly 10 years.
>Lease principal balance net tax credit: $30K
>Nissan Credit after 2 years I purchased it: $15K. My lease was coming due, and I think Nissan was (very) concerned a bunch of their cars were going to hit the market. Acknowledging this may be an outlier.
>Net Cost of ownership: $15K
>Repairs: $1.8K No joke. Excluding tires and windshield wipers, the maintenance cost is less than eggs. Note: no checkup, no brake job, no cabin air filter. In fact, if I wrote this just 4 months earlier, the cost would have been $700, but sadly I needed a thingamajig to keep the front right tire on the car.
>Gas Savings: $14.5K. Readily admit this is open to criticism. My calc: Avg cost of gas over 10 years $3.20. Average mpg 20 (I traded in a Chevy Tahoe for the Leaf, so I am taking an average of the Tahoe and (say) a Ford Escape. Fully acknowledging that the next piece is open for intense discomfort but there was really no cost for electricity. My electric bill went down over the period of ownership. I made a respectable effort to shut off house e_stuff in favor of the Leaf charge. Sure, one could argue that I could have done the same thing without the Leaf but there is some visceral enjoyment shutting off the Xbox when I plugged the Leaf in vs screaming at the kids to shut off their toys for gas savings. Anyhow, it’s my cash flow (and money for a dinner and movie on Friday), so I am sticking with it but if you want to run your own number, I pull from Dominion Power in VA.
Net Net…..
>Total Cost: $16.8K
>Gas Saving: $14.5K
>Monthly cost of ownership: $20 month (rounded up)
>Cost Avoidance: $1,200 annually (this probably includes tires and windshield wipers but still an interesting data point)
So, let’s run through the check list.
1. Stiff-armed OPEC. Check
2. Near positive ROI on admittedly one of the worst family investments. Check
3. A net positive to the environment. Check
4. A sweet ride. Even my Fox loving friends who are more spirited than Mr. Sullivan on the EV/CO2 topic, will begrudgingly admit “yea, it’s different but in a good way”. Check
5. But all this pales in comparison to the following …10 year ago my older son, when seeing the Leaf for the first time said: “What have you done??!! I will never be seen in a car like this”. The boy was visibly shaken by this nerdmobile. Fast forward, he just graduated from college, he has his own car now and is buying his own gas. A few days after graduation he came to me and said two things: “Thank you” (for college, which I fully appreciated) and second, can I borrow “Dumpy”.
This is a very good analysis, however I think a few more issues should be also considered. The lifetime assumption of 10 years is good for new cars, but for older cars, depending on the age when bought the lithium ion batteries may be need to be replaced within that time, incurring the batteries manufacture hit once again. The other issue is that cost is not considered and the analysis assumes a single car. Right now a small percentage of cars is electric, but if even half of all new cars were electric then until the battery/electric motor mineral supply chain ramps up the cost of electric vehicles will go up significantly. If the goal is to reduce emissions from the current level, using batteries in hybrid vehicles ( which use a much smaller number of batteries than a full BEV) would reduce emission even more since many more of them could be produced for the same amount of money. For example replacing 50% of all existing cars with hybrids that get double the mileage of current cars would reduce the emissions by 25% the same as replacing only 25% of existing cars with fully electric ones. The problems of upgrading grids and adding charging stations is also a hidden cost, since, like it or not, the petroleum infrastructure is already fully built out.
Always thought EVs are better on a long term basis but a 2-3 years (in case of UK) payback on production emissions is awesome.
This was a FANTASTIC ANALYSIS. There are outliers however. What the last 15+ years of production have taught is that Toyota Hybrids as a fleet have MUCH LONGER useful lives than nearly all other vehicles except perhaps SMALL HEAVY POLUTING DIESELS. Furthermore, the technology of the electric motors has even allowed the use of NIckel Metal Hydride batteries ratherr than the less exotic expensive and nearly impossible to recycle sealed Li-ion battery units ala Tesla. Finally, a very strange factor as to useful life has emerged amongst the electric vehicle leader Tesla. Tesla has been cutting edge in adoption of certain manufacturing technology, more closely associated with aircraft manufacture in many cases including heavy use of adhesives and very large tonnage presses making single parts that if damaged total the complete vehicle! All of these things are great for the manufacture and profit of the vehicle but distorts claims regarding useful life. The recent emergence of data that shows INSURERS TOTALING TESLA Y models at mileage as low as 10K raises a great concern about the true USEFUL LIFE of these vehicles. By comparison everyone knows someone who drove a Toyota for sometimes 20+ years and they just keep rolling. All of this could be part of an edge analysis since a Toyota hybrid provide 10 wonderful replacements for current basic ICE for the equivalent battery cell requirements of a single Tesla. The future is certainly BEV but WELL EXECUTED HYBRIDS likely contribute more to the reduction in greenhouse gases because of the EXTREME SIZE OF BATTERIES still included in full BEV.
A fair comparison context -- A Toyota Prius has an 8.8kW battery while the most modest Tesla Model 3 requires 50-82kW so the fairest comparison is what is the impact of 5-9 Priuses replacing ICE versus only one ICE being removed from service by a single Tesla. Food for thought. A case can be made the impact of 8 less ICEs by vehicles that operate in the same basic region of efficiency as the very best BEV might be an even better solution!
Your writing is FABULOUS and so happy to have become a new subscriber!
As usual, a very good analysis and cogent argument. Another "fun fact" is that less than 20% of the energy in motor gasoline makes it to the wheels, which explains why the engines are so hot. With electric vehicles, 90% of the energy makes it to the wheels.
Great article Hannah. Current battery design and degradation suggests that EV’s will need to have their batteries replaced over the time span reviewed. As Buzen says above, it would be interesting to see that data included too.
On a broader note, while there is no dispute over CO2 emissions at point of use, why do we only look at CO2? There are many other harmful substances, such as brake dust - which is both carcinogenic and can be a major factor in causes of asthma. Both EV and ICE use brake systems that emit toxic particles at point of use. While zero/low CO2 massively helps towards cleaner air, until we start tackling the other elements Im not sure we are being totally honest with ourselves.
Once again, Hannah, a brilliant, well researched piece. I love the graphics that you generate and the sites you link to. Kudos. You are among our most important writers.
Good piece - it’s just a little sad that the message still needs repeating. Keep up the excellent work
Great topic, great newsletter. I will recommend this to my creation care and climate crisis networks.
How do hybrid vehicles compare?
I would like to see consideration of the emissions and waste generated by toxic solar panels and windmills. The cleanest, safest and most efficient source of zero carbon energy is 4th and 5th generation fission nuclear power such as molten salt reactors.
very interesting article but unfortunately the finance side of things does not addup if you are going from a second hand debt free ICE to a new EV.
The savings in fuel dont wipe out the debt repayments to actually buy the car.
I argue for those who read but don't post, John. The undecided. The interested.
Another good reason to eschew ad hominem. One doesn't want rudeness to put off the undecided.
This is great. It would be interesting if you could do a follow up including plug in hybrids, while adding another comparison point- energy use to produce 1 EV vs x amount of hybrids
What seems to be overlooked is hundreds of pre-adolescents that are working long hours (for little pay) mining a necessary mineral for an EV battery. It is no less than slavery. They do this mining by bare hand. No tools. I will never buy an EV.
This is an excellent analysis, but it does not take into account the problem with producing enough lithium to electrify all cars. Obviously more lithium will be found eventually but it takes at least 10 years to develop a mine and the projection based on current plans are a substantial shortage. This is why it makes sense to also make lots of hybrid and plug in hybrid cars. Not only do they need smaller batteries. They use them much more efficiently such that you get a far bigger decrease in emissions for the same amount of battery. They also have the advantage of not requiring a dense charging infrastructure, which will take decades to develop, especially in low and middle income countries.
Offering a break from the carbon chat and sliding over to the other side of the guardrail so to speak (cost savings).
I have a 2013 Leaf with 90K miles on it. I bought it not for the eco angle or tax credit…nothing like that. I just wanted, in some small way, to have agency over my petrol dollars. More specifically, I wanted my money to stay in the US. With that said, here is the Leaf aka “Dumpy” experience after nearly 10 years.
>Lease principal balance net tax credit: $30K
>Nissan Credit after 2 years I purchased it: $15K. My lease was coming due, and I think Nissan was (very) concerned a bunch of their cars were going to hit the market. Acknowledging this may be an outlier.
>Net Cost of ownership: $15K
>Repairs: $1.8K No joke. Excluding tires and windshield wipers, the maintenance cost is less than eggs. Note: no checkup, no brake job, no cabin air filter. In fact, if I wrote this just 4 months earlier, the cost would have been $700, but sadly I needed a thingamajig to keep the front right tire on the car.
>Gas Savings: $14.5K. Readily admit this is open to criticism. My calc: Avg cost of gas over 10 years $3.20. Average mpg 20 (I traded in a Chevy Tahoe for the Leaf, so I am taking an average of the Tahoe and (say) a Ford Escape. Fully acknowledging that the next piece is open for intense discomfort but there was really no cost for electricity. My electric bill went down over the period of ownership. I made a respectable effort to shut off house e_stuff in favor of the Leaf charge. Sure, one could argue that I could have done the same thing without the Leaf but there is some visceral enjoyment shutting off the Xbox when I plugged the Leaf in vs screaming at the kids to shut off their toys for gas savings. Anyhow, it’s my cash flow (and money for a dinner and movie on Friday), so I am sticking with it but if you want to run your own number, I pull from Dominion Power in VA.
Net Net…..
>Total Cost: $16.8K
>Gas Saving: $14.5K
>Monthly cost of ownership: $20 month (rounded up)
>Cost Avoidance: $1,200 annually (this probably includes tires and windshield wipers but still an interesting data point)
So, let’s run through the check list.
1. Stiff-armed OPEC. Check
2. Near positive ROI on admittedly one of the worst family investments. Check
3. A net positive to the environment. Check
4. A sweet ride. Even my Fox loving friends who are more spirited than Mr. Sullivan on the EV/CO2 topic, will begrudgingly admit “yea, it’s different but in a good way”. Check
5. But all this pales in comparison to the following …10 year ago my older son, when seeing the Leaf for the first time said: “What have you done??!! I will never be seen in a car like this”. The boy was visibly shaken by this nerdmobile. Fast forward, he just graduated from college, he has his own car now and is buying his own gas. A few days after graduation he came to me and said two things: “Thank you” (for college, which I fully appreciated) and second, can I borrow “Dumpy”.
To quote Mr. Dolan: “Living today, Rocks”